PJM Forecasted PLCs are referenced in DSPP RFP Documents and are used to delineate the number of tranches and tranche size (MW) which are then used in the RFP auction.  They represent expected PLC based upon the PPL Zone according to PJM – taking into consideration a number of factors including, but not limited to customer and consumption growth, weather variations, and economic trending.

There are a number of reasons why 2010 forecast PLCs differ from 2011 & 2012 PLCs – the first of which is that the 2010 PLCs referenced in the CBP are the result of a forecast based upon 2005 peak load, whereas the 2011 and 2012 PLCs referenced in the DSPP are the result of a forecast based upon 2008 peak load.  The more recent PLCs incorporates updated assumptions not previously available in 2005 – the greatest of which are changes in weather and economic trending.

Please reference the 2009 PJM Load Forecast Report (found here) which dictates differences from the 2008 Forecast PLC and includes projected PLCs per zone.  Important take-away points from this report include a 4.2% decrease in forecast 2008 PLC to forecast 2009 PLC.  Furthermore, page 13 of the report shows two graphs (summer and winter peak demand) that include actual historic demand and forecast demand; both of which show significant changes from season to season and year to year.  Finally, the report also shows that PPL's forecast 2011 and 2012 values are nearly exactly the same as PJM forecast values.

We would like to emphasize that all of these PLCs are "forecast" values, based upon a litany of assumptions, and therefore will change to match actual peak load once supply begins.  Also available are historic PLC values found in the "Rate Category and Load Data" workbook on PPL's DSPP Site (found here), which show changes and variations in PPL Zone PLC from year to year, from 2004 to 2008.

Please provide the hourly aggregate historical load for the adjusted GS-3 (without 500 kW and above) and adjusted LP-4 (without 500 kW and below) categories.

PPL Electric is unable to provide hourly aggregate historical load due to the way PPL Electric's system gathers and breaks-down the data according to profile type. PPL Electric's load data is an aggregate load value across all rate classes – each rate class has an applicable load profile associated with it, which is then applied to the aggregate load number to break-down this number into specific rate classes. Because those customers within the rates classes GS-3 and LP-4 above and below 500 kW are imbedded in the rate profile for GS-3 and LP-4 as a whole, not based upon kW usage, they are unable to be specifically broken out. This is unlike energy usage data which is aggregated on a bottom-up approach, aggregating usage data on a meter by meter basis. For this reason, monthly break-downs of GS-3 and LP-4 customers (according to the 500 kW split) is the only data available within the "Rate Category & Load Data" spreadsheet.

The Customer Supply Groups are defined in the Default Service Procurement Plan reviewed and approved by the Commission. Those Customer Supply Groups are:

The Residential Customer Group, which includes rate schedules RS, RTS and RTD.

The Small Commercial Customer Group, which includes small commercial and industrial customers served under rate schedules GS-1, GH-1, GH-2, IS-1, BL, SA, SM, SHS, SE, TS, SI-1, Standby and the customers from the following rate schedules whose peak demand is less than 500 kW: GS-3, LP-4.

The Large Commercial and Industrial Customer Group includes customers on rate schedules ISP, LP-5, LP-6, LPEP, IST, ISM and the customers from the following rate schedules whose peak demand is equal to or greater than 500 kW: GS-3, LP-4.

PPL Electric does not expect to change the rate schedules that are part of each Customer Supply Group for the duration of the PUC-approved Default Service Procurement Plan, other than as required to comply with applicable regulation and/or legislation. If any change to the rate schedules that are part of each Customer Supply Group occur, notification will be issued.

The PPL Electric EGS Coordination tariff explains the process of developing the load profile for each rate class and can be found at: click here. Any changes to the EGS Coordination tariff must be submitted to the PUC for review.

The capacity Peak Load Contribution values for the PJM planning year from June 1, 2009 through May 31, 2010 are:

Residential: 2876 MW
Small Commercial & Industrial: 1976 MW
Large Commercial & Industrial: 1885 MW

The NSPL or Network Service Peak Load value applies only to transmission costs for which PPL Electric is responsible and is not a component of the supplier's costs; therefore is not provided. As stated in section 2.3 of the Full Requirements SMA, "Buyer shall be responsible, at its sole cost and expense, for the provision of Network Integration Transmission Service for PPL Electric customers and distribution service necessary to serve the Specified Percentage."
 
Please note that data has been posted, which shows GS-3 loads relative to total SC&I loads and LP-4 loads relative to LC&I loads.  Data has also been provided, which shows the percent of GS-3 sales above 500 kW and the percent of LP-4 sales under 500 kW.  Hence using energy based ratios you can estimate PLC values.

The data regarding GS-3 and LP-4 customers supplied in the on the main tab of the "Rate Category & Load Data" workbook, breaking out customer counts and estimated kWh usage was derived looking at actual historical usage data by customer (as provided in the Rate Category & Load Data workbook on the DSPP Web site), not vetting out these numbers based upon capacity values.  As described in Data/General FAQ-10, rate class profiles do not currently exists for 2011 and beyond, therefore PLCs for GS-3 and LP-4 cannot be individually tabulated.  For this reason, PLCs cannot be summed, as you have requested.

Please see also Data/General FAQ-12 for more information.

The data system is not currently set up to retrieve and delineate the requested capacity data according to the 500 kW break-out for GS-3 and LP-4 customers.  While the raw information exists, the classes are currently delineated according to a predescribed profile, not aggregated as usage data is from individual customer meters. The historical capacity PLC data posted on the RFP Web site was not developed by summing individual customer PLCs, but by using profiles.  Hence, it is not an easy exercise to change customer group definition.  PPL Electric is attempting to pull the requested data, but will not be able to provide this information before the Bid Proposal Due Date of August 11, 2009, for this first solicitation. This information will be posted to the RFP Web site when it becomes available and an announcement will be sent to all Web site registrants. PPL Electric expects to have this information available in time for the second solicitation Bid Proposal Due Date of October 20, 2009. 

Please note that data has been posted, which shows GS-3 loads relative to total SC&I loads and LP-4 loads relative to LC&I loads.  Data has also been provided, which shows the percent of GS-3 sales above 500 kW and the percent of LP-4 sales under 500 kW.  Hence using energy based ratios you can estimate PLC values.

Please also see Data/General FAQ-5 for the file titled "PPL_ICAP_PLC_Values_072209.xls" regarding the latest PLC values for all Customer Groups.

There are a number of reasons why 2010 forecast PLCs differ from 2011 & 2012 PLCs, and concurrently, why they do not seemingly match provided historical values.  Historical values are actuals, whereas forecast values are based on a number of assumptions and trending, derived through PJM modeling assumptions.  Please reference question 4 above which describes how forecast PLCs are derived by PJM.  Also, please take into consideration that the forecast values are just that, forecasts, and therefore will change when actual peak load contributions become available once supply starts.

As of the week of January 11th, 2010, approximately 225,000 customers (across all classes) have switched energy suppliers. Of the approximately 225,000 customers that have switched, approximately 190,000 are Residential customers.  Depending on when each customer's meter read date is, they may have already begun receiving supply from their new supplier or will in the coming weeks. 

For additional information on PLC's per customer class, please refer to the Aggregate PLC Summary Data file for additional information that PPL Electric is providing to all bidders at this time. 

For current energy suppliers under the Competitive Bridge Plan, in accordance with the CBP SMA, 7-day forecast data is available through PJM's eRPM Web site.  Both historical and forecast data is available according to each supplier's short name.  Additional break-outs are not available through PJM's eSuite System.

PPL Electric has also recently released some Aggregate PLC Summary Data information per class available on the PPL POLR Web site.

Updated annual PLC and NSPL data by Customer Group have been provided in the "Capacity" tab and "NSPL-NITS" tab, respectively, of the Rate Categories and Load Data file. The annual PLC data is only for eligible load. In addition, PPL Electric has provided, in the Aggregate PLC Summary Data file, aggregate PLC values per customer group for POLR customers to help facilitate analysis of migration levels. This data is an estimate of PLC by customer group and is only a snapshot in time.

PPL Electric uses the 60-day adjustment primarily to shift load from one supplier to another.  As in the historical load data provided is on an aggregate basis by rate class, and there was primarily only one supplier, PPL Electric did not perform a 60-day reconciliation.  The rate class load data on the RFP Web site is the only rate class load data that is available.  Also, please note that PPL Electric transitioned to a new Meter Data Management System (MDMS) in 2009, which became fully functional in January 2010. The MDMS provides PPL Electric with hourly data available for all hours, and will use profiles only when the hourly metered data are unavailable.

The data provided for November and December 2009 are provided using the MDMS. Suppliers are to note that this is a change in the methodology of gathering the historical load data. On a go-forward basis, PPL Electric will be relying on the new MDMS system to generate historical load data.

With reference to the Rate Category and Load Data, the Monthly Billed Counts and Monthly Billed Sales data includes all customers (shopping and default service customers).

Please note that the Rate Category and Load Data file was updated on April 16, 2010. The updated file dated April 16, 2010, corrected for four (4) numbers; namely, the February and March 2010 data reported in the tab "ShoppingBilledSales" for the rate classes "LP4 < 500 kW" and "LP4 >= 500 kW", which were previously reported in error. 

PPL Electric has since provided updated historical hourly load data for eligible load through February 2010, and monthly billed sales and counts for eligible and shopping customers through April 2010 in the file dated May 21, 2010.

The rate category and load data file has PLC data that is for the full load of the PPL territory and is based on the 5 coincidental peaks as determined by PJM. This number is generated off of actual customer usage for the 5 peak hours as determined by PJM and assigned to each customer based on their pro-rata share of that assigned peak.

The PLC data presentation file is a representation of what the actual daily PLC is for those customers that remain on default service. This file was created as a tool that potential suppliers could use to 'forecast' the default service requirements.

The 2 sets of data really do not have any correlation to each other as one is based on a specific period in time while the other is actual data on a daily basis.

The rate category and load data file has PLC data that is for the full load of the PPL territory and is based on the 5 coincidental peaks as determined by PJM. This number is generated off of actual customer usage for the 5 peak hours as determined by PJM and assigned to each customer based on their pro-rata share of that assigned peak.

The PLC data presentation file is a representation of what the actual daily PLC is for those customers that remain on default service. This file was created as a tool that potential suppliers could use to 'forecast' the default service requirements.

The 2 sets of data really do not have any correlation to each other as one is based on a specific period in time while the other is actual data on a daily basis.

The Rate Category and Load data file has aggregated usage by rate class for all PPL customers. Included in this file is reporting on the retail sales (by rate class) as well as the shopping sales (by rate class). In addition, PPL Electric provides Aggregate PLC data for the POLR load in order to provide additional information to potential suppliers that cannot be derived from the data mentioned above.

PPL Electric Utilities does not see the need to provide any additional data as the forecasting function that companies use to provide their bids should be based on the data that has been provided for all bidders on our Web site, so no additional data will be provided at this time.

The following link provides detail from www.papowerswitch.com on weekly shopping updates as it relates to the load in the PPL Zone. This data may help to refine your modeling used when preparing your bid evaluations.

http://extranet.papowerswitch.com/stats/PAPowerSwitch-Stats.pdf?/download/PAPowerSwitch-Stats.pdf

Please note that PPL Electric has posted a file entitled "Supplementary Notes to the Rate Category and Load Data" to provide information regarding updates to the Rate Category and Load Data file. To download the latest data files and supplementary notes: click here.

For your convenience, we provide the following summary:

• On January 1, 2010, the original LP-4 rate class is split into LP-4 and MP-1 rate classes.  Hourly load for revised LP-4 rate class reflects load of customers previously in LP-4 rate class customers taking default service on a Fixed Price basis and shopping customers regardless of size. Hourly load for MP-1 rate class reflects load of customers previously in LP-4 rate class taking hourly default service regardless of size.
• On January 1, 2011, L4L rate class is introduced. Hourly load for L4L reflects load of customers previously in LP-4 and MP-1 that have peak load of less than 500 kW.
• L4L is part of the Small Commercial and Industrial customer group.

During a review of customer Peak Load Contributions (PLCs), PPL Electric Utilities (PPL Electric) identified an erroneous ICAP PLC value for a residential account.  Specifically, a PLC value was erroneously input as 246.1 MW (versus 2.46137kW).  The error went undetected during the 80 day period beginning 6/1/2011 through 8/19/2011.  An error of this magnitude resulted in a significant change in the PPL Electric Daily Scaling Factor.  To correct the error, PPL Electric will reduce the aggregated ICAP PLC values reported to PJM for the impacted supplier by 246.1 MW for an 80 day period starting 9/1/2011 and ending 11/19/2011.  This correction will result in a change in PPL Electric's Daily Scaling Factors for all suppliers during this period.  Please take note of our estimate of how this correction will impact PPL Electric's Daily Scaling Factor:

• During the time the error existed (6/1/2011 to 8/19/2011), the PPL Electric Daily Scaling Factor was approximately 0.92.
• After the incorrect PLC was corrected (on 8/20/2011), the PPL Electric Daily Scaling Factor increased to a more appropriate level of approximately 0.95.
• Starting 9/1/2011, PPL will apply the correction discussed above for an 80 day period.  During this time, the PPL Electric Daily Scaling Factor will increase to approximately 0.98.

After the correction period is finished (11/20/2011), the PPL Electric Daily Scaling Factor will return to a value of approximately 0.95.

Are the historical load data provided on the RFP Web site de-rated for marginal losses?

The PLC (MW) for the Residential Customer Group as provided in the Full Requirements RFP Rules is for the entire Residential Customer Group.

Please note that these numbers are 'forecasts' or projections of PLCs, and will change to match actual peak load contributions once actual supply begins at the commencement of the supply period. For historical PLC data please see the Rate Category & Load Data from 2001 to present found here.

Please also see Data/General FAQ-4 and Data/General FAQ-15 for additional information.

The PLC (MW) for the Residential Customer Group as provided in the Full Requirements RFP Rules is for the entire Residential Customer Group including the portions to be served by long-term supply from NYPA, by the 300 MW block energy RFP, and by the 50 MW unit entitlement supply.

Please note that these numbers are 'forecasts' or projections of PLCs, and will change to match actual peak load contributions once actual supply begins at the commencement of the supply period. For historical PLC data please see the Rate Category & Load Data from 2001 to present: found here. For historical data related to the NYPA supply, please see the Historical NYPA Load Hourly Supply file: found here.

Please also see Data/General FAQ-4 and Data/General FAQ-15 for additional information.